|
With the aim of peaking oil and greenhouse gas emissions, reducing pollutant emissions to improve air quality and ensuring public health, China has made great efforts to develop energy-saving and new-energy vehicles. During 2015-2017, Chinese and global NEVs have witnessed a rapid growth. Many traditional car companies have shifted their strategies from watch-and-wait to substantive action. The release of "Parallel Management Regulation for Corporate Average Fuel Consumption and New Energy Vehicle Credits for Passenger Cars Corporate" has pushed the corporates from saving energy and reducing emissions of ICE to the development of NEVs for compliance. With the emerging of NEVs, could we relax the requirement of the energy saving and emission reduction of conventional vehicles?
On December 20, 2017, experts and representatives from clean transportation sector gathered together for the first workshop of the China Clean Transport Partnership (CCTP) to discuss the potential and significance of energy saving and emission reduction of conventional vehicles against background NEVs development.
Dr. An Feng, Executive Director of CCTP, Founder and Executive Director of the Innovation Center of Energy and Transportation, chaired the discussion. About 30 experts from the Energy Foundation, Resources and Environment Institute of the Development Research Center of the State Council, Energy Research Institute of National Development and Reform Commission, China Automotive Technology and Research Center, China EV 100, Tsinghua University, VECC of Ministry of Environmental Protection, Beijing Transportation Institute, the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) and other agencies participated in the discussion. The discussion focused on the potential and significance of energy saving and emission reduction of new energy vehicles and conventional vehicles, and the impact of policies on that of traditional vehicles.
In recent years, China highly values the development of new energy vehicles and the market is in full swing. How much energy can new energy vehicles save? With research data the experts generally recognized NEVs' contribution to the national energy conservation and emission reduction, especially the potentials in medium and long-term. On measurement methodology, however, they expressed different opinions. Most experts believe that ICE's energy saving and emission reduction of conventional cannot be relaxed or given up. For total amount, IEA's forecast in 2010 predicted that vehicles with internal combustion engine will still take up nearly 60% of the sales of light vehicles by 2050. Scenario analysis of Tsinghua University also shows even if all passenger cars newly sold are required to be fully electrified in 2030, the gasoline consumption that year will only be cut half. Therefore, ICE in China still has large potential for development. For technical capacity, both China Automotive Technology and Research Center and China Automotive Engineering Research Institute claim that there are still about 35% of energy saving potential for conventional vehicles. Although consensus has been reached on the potential, experts still expressed concerns on whether it can be achieved in reality or not.
Since that NEV and ICE both have energy saving and emission reduction potential, how to balance becomes crucial. The government has made it clear in many policy documents to walk with both legs, and made NEV development goals and energy saving goals for conventional vehicles. Most experts agree on the trend of NEV development and that the energy saving of conventional vehicles cannot be discarded. At least in the short to medium term, the volume, energy consumption and emissions of ICE far exceed that of NEV. However, some expert thinks there is no need to answer the question currently because Corporates and the market will naturally make their own choices based on economy.
The announcement of the "Parallel Management Regulation for Corporate Average Fuel Consumption and New Energy Vehicle Credits for Passenger Cars " (hereinafter referred to as the "NEV mandate policy ") has caused heated discussions in the industry. Experts raised different opinions on whether the NEV mandate policy will impact the potential of ICE's energy saving and emission reduction. Scenario Analysis of China Automotive Technology and Research Center shows that the one-way linkage mechanism in the NEV mandate policy has little impact on easing fuel consumption requirement. The purpose of the mechanism is to stimulate fuel efficiency to further encourage NEV development. Experts also pointed out that the current policy indeed favors NEVs. Subsidy phaseout policy is relatively conciliatory. Accounting privilege for NEVs will certainly affect ICE's energy saving and emission reduction, and even will drive corporates to relax their technology upgrading. Regarding the direction of policy guidance, participants shared the common view that the transformation should be carried out step by step. At the same time, the government should effectively participate in regulatory monitoring and safeguarding. From the perspective of customers, it is essential to provide benefit opportunities for car owners and drive them to participate in market-oriented energy-conservation and emission reduction.
The workshop ended in a warm atmosphere. Huiming Gong, Program Director of the Transportation Team of the Energy Foundation, summed up: "A clear consensus has been reached in this workshop, which is energy saving and emission reduction of ICEs and the development of NEVs are both significant. In the future, topics such as the potential impact of price competitiveness between oil price and electricity price, the relationship between automobile standard accounting and actual effect of energy-saving and emission reduction, future influence of autonomous driving and the economic effect of energy-saving and emission reduction shall be further discussed. "
|
